An Analysis of Inflation Growth and Economic Growth in Indonesia, 2019–2024

Main Article Content

Hotma Mentalita
Jenni Veronika Br Ginting
Fitra Tur Radiyah
Tri Dessy Ratna Sari

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate how Indonesian inflation and its economic growth. The research period of 2019–2024 is particularly significant because it includes dramatic macroeconomic oscillations caused by COVID-19 pandemic and the following economic recovery phase. This research uses official statistical sources of Indonesia to provide secondary time-series data. Adopting a quantitative exporal approach, inflation growth is considered the independent variable and economic growth serves as its dependent metric. We analyze the data using descriptive statistics and regression analysis to see the size and direction of relationship between our two alternating variables. The results showed that inflation growth has a significant effect on economic growth, because the period of research in both price stability and output performance in Indonesia reflects this dynamic interaction. These findings suggest that when handled properly, inflationary pressures do not necessarily impede economic growth. Conversely, they may be a reflection of ongoing economic adjustments in grave of the pandemic. This paper adds to macro-economic literature by presenting new empirical evidence using data from Indonesia since 1983 and looking at inflation growth rather than just the level of inflation. Policy implications for this result are that relevant bits of data help decision-makers keep macroeconomic stability while fostering sustainable economic growth.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
Mentalita, H., Ginting, J. V. B., Radiyah, F. T., & Sari, T. D. R. (2026). An Analysis of Inflation Growth and Economic Growth in Indonesia, 2019–2024. EKOMA : Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi, 5(3), 3353–3365. https://doi.org/10.56799/ekoma.v5i3.15559
Section
Articles

References

Adelakun, O. J., Lekena, T., Motampane, M. E., Mots’oanyane, L., & Nyathi, B. (2025). The Effects of Inflation on International Trade Dynamics in South Africa. Financial Markets Institutions and Risks, 9(3), 159. https://doi.org/10.61093/fmir.9(3).159-170.2025

Afrizal, A. (2024). Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables on the Existence of Inflation in Indonesia Using the Vector Error Correction Model Approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 17(1), 9. https://doi.org/10.24843/jekt.2024.v17.i01.p02

Agustantira, V., Asngari, I., & Andaiyani, S. (2024). Long-term stability of money demand and monetary policy in Indonesia. Optimum Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 14(1), 116. https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v14i1.9146

Ahmed, Z. (2021). Revisiting inflation and growth nexus: an asymmetric cointegration based on Non-linear ARDL approach in case of Bangladesh. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 13(2), 371. https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v13.n2.2021.5

Akbar, D. D., Siregar, H., Sugema, I., & Anggraeni, L. (2025). Quantitative Easing and Economic Stability: Adaptive Strategies in Indonesia’s New Trinity Framework. International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR), 6(5), 2226. https://doi.org/10.37385/ijedr.v6i5.8086

Ali, A. K., & Asfaw, D. M. (2023). Nexus between inflation, income inequality, and economic growth in Ethiopia. PLoS ONE, 18(11). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0294454

Ali, M., Apriliana, T., & Fathonah, A. N. (2023). Effect of Money Supply and Bank Indonesia Rate on Consumer Price Index in Indonesia 2018-2022. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis & Entrepreneurship, 17(2), 488. https://doi.org/10.55208/jebe.v17i2.471

Anderl, C., & Caporale, G. M. (2023). The Asymmetric Impact of Economic Policy and Oil Price Uncertainty on Inflation: Evidence from Developed and Emerging Economies. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4359382

Aryati, A., Junaidi, J., & Putra, R. A. (2023). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic. Economy of Regions, 19(4), 1263. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-4-23

Atigala, P., Maduwanthi, T., Gunathilake, V., Sathsarani, S., & Jayathilaka, R. (2022). Driving the pulse of the economy or the dilution effect: Inflation impacting economic growth. PLoS ONE, 17(8). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273379

Basconcillo, J. A. Q. (2023). A nexus between fiscal policy and inflation: a case study of Indonesia using SVAR model. Public Sector Economics, 47(4), 477. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.5

Basmar, E., Salim, Z., Rahman, A., Takhim, M., Basmar, E., & Campbell, C. M. (2023). The Snowball Effect of Financial Activity Resilience and Growth In Indonesia. Research Square (Research Square). https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2810644/v1

Cakranegara, P. A., & Tarigan, B. P. (2023). Indonesia Capital Market Recovery: An Analysis. In Advances in economics, business and management research/Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research (p. 129). Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-076-3_9

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT & SCENARIO ANALYSIS PERBANKAN 2024. (2024).

Farabi, A., Zamroni, Z., Handayani, D., & Setianto, R. H. (2024). Sustainable Development in Indonesia: A Study of Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, FDI, and Gross Capital Formation. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(2), 435. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15424

Firdaus, E. N., & Septiani, Y. (2022). EFFECT ANALYSIS OF INFLATION, EXPORTS AND IMPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA. JOURNAL OF HUMANITIES SOCIAL SCIENCES AND BUSINESS (JHSSB), 2(1), 32. https://doi.org/10.55047/jhssb.v2i1.364

Ghannili, F., Utama, M. B., Amirullah, M. A. K., & Iman, M. N. (2025). Economic Turbulence in Indonesia: The Effects of Instability and Crisis. ETIKONOMI, 24(2). https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v24i2.44443

Habanabakize, T., & Dickason–Koekemoer, Z. (2023). Classical or Keynesian? Testing the Asymmetric Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa. Hong Kong Journal of Social Sciences, 62. https://doi.org/10.55463/hkjss.issn.1021-3619.62.14

Hadiwibowo, Y., & Priharjanto, A. (2021). The Impacts of Government Spending and Monetary Policy Rate in Indonesia. European Journal of Business Management and Research, 6(6), 183. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2021.6.6.1176

Harun, H., Nordin, N. M., Hasbullah, N. N., Mastor, S. H., Kamis, R., & Awang, A. H. (2023). Nexus between Macroeconomic Factors and Economic Growth in Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach. Information Management and Business Review, 15, 306. https://doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v15i3(i).3541

Ichsan, I., Husein, R., Andriyani, D., Irmayani, D., & Maulana, I. (2023). Analyzing Factors Driving Economic Growth in Indonesia Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(7). https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i7.2862

Idroes, G. M., Hardi, I., Noviandy, T. R., Sasmita, N. R., Hilal, I. S., Kusumo, F., & Idroes, R. (2023). A Deep Dive into Indonesia’s CO2 Emissions: The Role of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Natural Disasters. Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics, 1(2), 69. https://doi.org/10.60084/eje.v1i2.115

Indarti, D., Saraswati, B. D., & Sasongko, G. (2023). Inflation analysis in Indonesia: A monetary or fiscal phenomenon? Industrija, 51(2), 7. https://doi.org/10.5937/industrija51-47518

Indrawati, S. M., Satriawan, E., & Abdurohman. (2024). Indonesia’s Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of the Pandemic. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 60(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2024.2335967

Inflasi Dalam Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Studi Empiris di Indonesia Periode 1991 – 2024. (2025). EKONOMIKAWAN Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 25(1). https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v25i1.25065

Josué, A. R. (2024). Understanding the Causes of Inflation in Madagascar using an ARDL model. Research Square (Research Square). https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4430636/v1

Kerimov, A., Babayev, A., Ashurbayli-Huseynova, N., & Gubadova, A. (2023). Effectiveness of anti-inflation policy that ensures economic growth: Evidence from post-Soviet countries. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 21(2), 542. https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.21(2).2023.50

Khairi, A. I., & Haryanti, A. F. (2024). Analysis of the Impact of Inflation on Indonesia’s Economic Growth Post Covid-19. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4911283

Kifory, O. (2025). Education, Savings, and Economic Growth in Côte d'Ivoire: An Intertemporal Application of the Ramsey Model. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 17(11), 1. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v17n11p1

Kurniawan, W., & Kadir, K. (2023). International Trade Price Index: A Leading Indicator for Indonesia’s Inflation? Economics Development Analysis Journal, 12(2), 182. https://doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v12i2.63088

Linh, N. Q. (2024). The relationship between inflation and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Vietnam in 1996-2023. Deleted Journal, 4(4), 86. https://doi.org/10.57110/vnu-jeb.v4i4.271

Maulidya, A. N., Rahim, Abd., Astuty, S., Bado, B., & Hastuti, D. R. D. (2025). A Comparative Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Indonesia and Singapore. Airlangga Journal of Innovation Management, 6(3), 624. https://doi.org/10.20473/ajim.v6i3.76481

Mauto, R. K., Jeke, L., Mukarati, J., & Abel, S. (2025). Evaluating Interaction Between Inflation and A Composite Macroeconomics Index. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 15(6), 218. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.19995

Muflikhah, S., Prastyo, D. D., & Akbar, M. (2025). Analysis of the Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Indonesian Economy with Impulse Response Function in the Structural Vector Autoregressive Models. 1. https://doi.org/10.1109/siml65326.2025.11080989

Nursaliyawati, A. S., & Oktora, S. I. (2023). Simultaneous Relationship between Financial Inclusion, Economic Growth, and Income Inequality in Sulawesi Island, 2011–2019. Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 69(1), 132. https://doi.org/10.47291/efi.2022.02

Nwaobia, A. N., Ogbebor, P. I., & Ogundipe, A. (2025). The Effect of Capital Flows on Poverty Gap in West African Countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 15(6), 262. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.20569

Öztürk, C. (2025). Nonlinear Relationships Between Inflation, Interest, and Exchange Rates in Türkiye: A Fourier-Based Approach. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 25(3), 103. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1589696

Pechdin, W., & Swangsilp, S. (2024). Towards long-term relationship of transport investment and economic growth in Thailand: Implications for public policy in post-COVID-19 investment. Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development, 8(5), 3984. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i5.3984

Rachmawaty, R., Oktrima, B., & Jati, W. (2024). Impact Analysis Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies On Indonesia’s Economic Growth. Jurnal Manajemen, 28(1), 88. https://doi.org/10.24912/jm.v28i1.1518

Rakhmat, R., Warjiyo, P., & Sadli, A. M. (2022). The Influence of Exchange Rate and Foreign Capital on the Performance of Inflation Targeting Framework in Indonesia. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 17(5), 1585. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.170523

Sari, F. M., Astuti, A., Zamanda, D., Restu, F. P., & Fadilla, A. (2024). Kebijakan Fiskal dan Dampaknya Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Journal of Economics Assets and Evaluation, 1(4), 1. https://doi.org/10.47134/jeae.v1i4.231

Sari, W. N. I., Setyowati, E., Putri, S. M., & Faridatussalam, S. R. (2022). Analysis of the Effect of Interest Rates, Exchange Rate Inflation and Foreign Investment (PMA) on Economic Growth in Indonesia in 1986-2020. Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research/Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research. https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.220602.041

Saungweme, T., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2021). Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination. Advances in Decision Sciences, 25(3), 1. https://doi.org/10.47654/v25y2021i3p1-25

Setiawan, A. B., Yusuf, M., Prajanti, S. D. W., Prasetyo, F. H., Bowo, P. A., & Maftukhah, I. (2024). Unraveling the Interplay among Inflation, Rice Prices, and Farmers Exchange Rate in Indonesia. Agro Ekonomi, 35(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.22146/ae.86078

Singagerda, F. S., Sanusi, A., Alam, I. A., & Hairani, T. (2025). Managing Commodity-Driven Inflation Risk: The Role of Domestic Price-Setting Policies in ASEAN+3. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 15(6), 499. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.21187

Siregar, T. M., Ruslan, D., & Sari, R. (2023). ROLE OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY IN MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN INDONESIA. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 58(6). https://doi.org/10.35741/issn.0258-2724.58.6.19

Siregar, T., Sirojuzilam, S., Ruslan, D., & Sari, R. (2023). Policy Trends for Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability in Indonesia. https://doi.org/10.4108/eai.19-9-2023.2340426

Sohibien, G. P. D., Setiawan, S., & Prastyo, D. D. (2024). Threshold spatial vector autoregressive with metric exogenous variables (TSpVARX) for regional inflation and money outflow prediction. Regional Statistics, 14(5), 862. https://doi.org/10.15196/rs140503

Srinita, S., & Effendi, K. A. (2021). ENERGY POLICY ANALYSIS, MONETARY AND FISCAL ON INFLATION VOLATILITY IN INDONESIA. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(2), 309. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10841

Suripto, S., Athfal, A. A., Kurniawan, M. L. A., & Salim, A. (2025). Structural Cointegration of Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and External Debt in Indonesia: An Analysis of Macroeconomic Stability with the ARDL–ECM Approach. Ekuilibrium Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi, 20(2), 271. https://doi.org/10.24269/ekuilibrium.v20i2.2025.pp271-294

Susilowati, M. W. K. (2023). Implementation of the Expectation–Augmented Phillip’s Trade-off to Create an Inflation Path that Minimize Social’s Loss Function: Evidence from Indonesia. Research Square (Research Square). https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2467715/v1

Taliding, A., Paddu, A. H., Anwar, A. I., & Sabir, S. (2025). The Effect of Inflation and Interest Rates on Economic Growth in Indonesia. In Advances in economics, business and management research/Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research (p. 214). Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-758-8_20

Taqiyya, F. F., Sudarsono, H., & Perdana, A. R. A. (2025). Examining the contribution of Islamic bank to Indonesia economic growth. Optimum Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 15(2), 174. https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v15i2.12395

The Dynamic Impact of Inflation on Supply Chain and Competitiveness: Bibliometric and Econometric Analysis. (2023). Journal of Competitiveness, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2023.01.09

Wang, Z. (2025). The Interplay Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Implications for Economic Stability. In Advances in economics, business and management research/Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research (p. 809). Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-748-9_89

Widiarsih, D., Taifur, W. D., Ridwan, E., & Devianto, D. (2024). Spillover effect of inflation in Indonesia. Research Square (Research Square). https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3831343/v1

Wilantari, R. N., & Afriani, I. H. (2021). Monetary and fiscal policy mix connectivity towards the business cycle in Indonesia. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan Dan Pembangunan Daerah, 9(2), 139. https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v9i2.11489

Yanti, S. A., Efendi, B., Rusiadi, R., & Sari, W. I. (2024). Analysis of post COVID-19 economic recovery on inflation fluctuation management in Indonesia. Open Access Research Journal of Science and Technology, 10(2), 46. https://doi.org/10.53022/oarjst.2024.10.2.0047

Zein, A. S., Hasibuan, W. P. E. S., Saripah, A., Fitriani, Hasibuan, I. H., & Salwa, L. (2024). ANALISIS KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA. KINDAI, 20(3). https://doi.org/10.35972/kindai.v20i3.1754