Analisis Pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment Dan Financial Development Terhadap Eskpor Indonesia
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Abstract
Ekspor merupakan komponen strategis dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara. Efektivitas ekspor sangat bergantung pada kemampuan negara menarik investasi asing dan mengembangkan sistem keuangan yang mendukung perdagangan internasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) dan Financial Development terhadap ekspor Indonesia menggunakan data time series periode 1990–2024. Metode yang digunakan adalah model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dengan variabel kontrol sektor industri dan produktivitas tenaga kerja, serta dua variabel dummy untuk mengontrol guncangan struktural akibat krisis moneter Asia 1997–1998 dan pandemi COVID-19 2020–2021. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, FDI pada tahun berjalan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor, namun pada dua periode sebelumnya berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan, mengindikasikan efek substitusi dinamis. Financial Development pada tahun berjalan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan, sedangkan pada satu hingga tiga periode sebelumnya berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. Sektor industri dan produktivitas tenaga kerja menunjukkan pola dinamis dengan arah pengaruh yang bervariasi antarlag. Dalam jangka panjang, FDI berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan, Financial Development berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan, sedangkan sektor industri dan produktivitas tenaga kerja masing-masing berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor Indonesia
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