Ketidakpastian Ekonomi dan Ketahanan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia: Peran Ekspor, FDI, Tenaga Kerja, dan Keterbukaan Perdagangan
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Abstract
Dengan menggunakan data periode 2000–2018 yang diperoleh dari World Bank dan WUI Database, penelitian ini mengkaji keterkaitan antara ketidakpastian ekonomi global dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melalui pendekatan regresi time series. Ketidakpastian ekonomi global direpresentasikan oleh World Uncertainty Index (WUI), sementara ekspor, tenaga kerja, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), dan keterbukaan perdagangan digunakan sebagai variabel penjelas. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model yang digunakan memiliki pengaruh signifikan secara keseluruhan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada tingkat individual, ekspor dan keterbukaan perdagangan terbukti mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi secara signifikan. Sebaliknya, tenaga kerja menunjukkan pengaruh negatif dan signifikan, yang mengindikasikan bahwa peningkatan jumlah tenaga kerja belum diikuti oleh produktivitas yang memadai. Variabel FDI tidak menunjukkan pengaruh yang berarti terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sementara itu, WUI memiliki hubungan negatif tetapi tidak signifikan, sehingga ketidakpastian ekonomi global belum menjadi faktor yang secara langsung menentukan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia selama periode pengamatan. Walaupun sebagian besar asumsi klasik telah terpenuhi, masih ditemukan indikasi multikolinearitas dan potensi autokorelasi yang perlu diperhatikan dalam interpretasi hasil.
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