Analisis Kausalitas Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dengan Kemiskinan, Pengangguran, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Halmahera Selatan

Abstract

Economic growth in resource-rich regions does not always translate directly into lower poverty, wider employment, and improved human development. This study examines the predictive causal relationship between economic growth and poverty, unemployment, and the Human Development Index in South Halmahera Regency. A quantitative time-series design was applied to secondary annual data for 2006-2024, converted into 76 quarterly observations through interpolation. The analysis used three bivariate Vector Autoregression models in first differences. The procedure included the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, optimal-lag selection, model-stability testing, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Granger causality test. All variables were integrated of order one, and the three VAR systems satisfied the stability condition. The selected lags were seven quarters for economic growth-poverty, six quarters for economic growth-unemployment, and four quarters for economic growth-human development. Granger tests identified one-way causality from economic growth to poverty, unemployment, and human development, with probabilities of 0.0385, 0.0021, and 0.0483, respectively. Reverse causality was not supported. The Johansen results were interpreted as evidence of long-run equilibrium relationships in all three pairs. These findings place economic growth as a leading variable, but its social impact depends on sectoral labor absorption, distribution, human-capital investment, and access to services across an archipelagic territory. Regional policy should therefore prioritize inclusive agromaritime growth, local workforce development, targeted social protection, and equitable education and health services.