Konsistensi Perencanaan dan Penganggaran Serta Faktor Penentunya Dalam RPJMD Halmahera Selatan

Abstract

This study evaluates the consistency of regional development planning and budgeting in South Halmahera Regency during the 2021-2026 Regional Medium-Term Development Plan period and identifies the governance factors associated with that consistency. A quantitative design combined document analysis and an apparatus survey. The documentary dataset included regional agency strategic plans, annual development plans, general budget policies and provisional budget ceilings, regional budgets, and budget implementation documents for 2021-2025. The survey involved 32 officials engaged in planning, budgeting, control, and evaluation. Consistency was measured through program, activity, subactivity, and budget indices. Descriptive statistics, the Kruskal-Wallis test, and multiple linear regression were then applied. The average composite consistency index reached 80.79 percent and was classified as consistent. The highest index occurred in 2024 at 96.86 percent, while the lowest occurred in 2023 at 57.92 percent. Consistency differed significantly across years but not across regional government agencies. Institutional arrangements, human resource quality, regulation, and budget politics jointly affected consistency, with an F value of 6.755, a probability of 0.001, and an adjusted R-squared of 0.426. Strong multicollinearity indicates that these factors operate as an integrated governance system rather than as isolated determinants. The findings support periodic reconciliation of planning and budget data, stronger control over budget changes, standardized performance indicators, and annual use of a consistency index as an evaluation instrument.