Analisis Pengaruh Volatilitas Harga Energi Global terhadap Indeks Ekspor Pertambangan Indonesia: Pendekatan ARDL dan Error Correction Model
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Abstract
Ketergantungan Indonesia pada ekspor komoditas tambang menciptakan kerentanan struktural terhadap fluktuasi pasar energi global. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh harga batu bara, minyak, dan gas alam dunia terhadap indeks nilai ekspor pertambangan Indonesia selama Januari 2014–Desember 2023. Data bulanan dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag–Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) untuk mengidentifikasi hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antarvariabel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hanya harga batu bara dengan jeda satu bulan yang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks nilai ekspor pertambangan, sedangkan harga minyak dan gas alam tidak menunjukkan pengaruh yang berarti. Uji kointegrasi mengonfirmasi adanya hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang, sementara koefisien koreksi kesalahan menunjukkan proses penyesuaian yang sangat cepat menuju keseimbangan. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa kinerja ekspor pertambangan Indonesia masih sangat bergantung pada dinamika harga batu bara. Oleh karena itu, diversifikasi komoditas ekspor dan penguatan hilirisasi menjadi kebutuhan struktural untuk mengurangi kerentanan terhadap gejolak pasar energi internasional.
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