Pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment, Ekspor, dan Tenaga Kerja terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Ketimpangan Pendapatan di Indonesia
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Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), ekspor, dan tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketimpangan pendapatan, serta menguji peran pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai variabel mediasi pada 34 provinsi di Indonesia selama 2021–2025. Penelitian menggunakan data panel seimbang dengan 170 observasi yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik dan Kementerian Investasi/BKPM. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel dengan pemilihan model melalui Uji Chow, Uji Hausman, dan Uji Lagrange Multiplier. Analisis jalur digunakan untuk menguji pengaruh langsung dan tidak langsung, sedangkan Uji Sobel digunakan untuk menguji efek mediasi. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa Fixed Effect Model merupakan model yang paling sesuai. FDI dan ekspor berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan tenaga kerja berpengaruh negatif signifikan. Terhadap ketimpangan pendapatan, FDI berpengaruh positif signifikan, sementara ekspor, tenaga kerja, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah yang berbeda. Pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak memediasi pengaruh FDI, ekspor, dan tenaga kerja terhadap ketimpangan pendapatan. Temuan ini menunjukkan perlunya kebijakan pembangunan yang berorientasi pada pemerataan investasi, produktivitas tenaga kerja, dan distribusi pendapatan antarwilayah.
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